Rajasthan Royals - Auction Possibilities
Note - In preparation for writing this I re-read the chapter ‘Moneyball 2.0’ in Hitting Against The Spin and listened to the episode of Red Inker by Jarrod Kimber with Rajasthan owner Manoj Badale. Both were helpful resources.
With a mega auction coming up, it’s a chance for franchises to re-build their squads for the coming years, which could be particularly crucial this time around, with rumours that it could be the last ever IPL mega auction. There’s no team this applies to more than the Rajasthan Royals, who have struggled in recent IPL seasons; only finishing in the top four once as well as having the lowest win percentage of teams in the last four seasons:
Rajasthan just haven’t performed well since returning to the tournament after a two-year ban in 2016 & 17. Their task to build a successful team at the last auction was made more difficult by this, it meant they could only make one pre-auction signing and two RTM (right to match) cards. In comparison to other teams who could retain three players, as well as having two RTM cards. This doesn’t sound like a big difference but it is. There will be no such excuse for Rajasthan this time around, as it’s a level playing field, with each team being allowed up to four retentions and new franchises were allowed to make three pre-auction signings.
In the past they’ve often been referred to as a ‘data’ team, mainly down to their performances in the early years of the IPL, managing to be one of the strongest sides in the initial years, despite, often not using their entire purse at many auctions. As the influence of data has grown in all sports, not just cricket, the edge you gain specifically from data alone has diminished. To the point where franchise owners/heads of recruitments have themselves admitted that they don’t believe there is much of an edge left in base level recruitment and are instead focusing on things like game theory ahead of auctions. Personally, I feel these statements are a bit too hasty, while there might not be an obvious gain in terms of immediate returns, I think there is an edge in how well you utilise & how much patience you have in backing those players. Plenty of teams still make basic mistakes on a game to game basis in terms of player utilisation and don’t back quality/ability for as long as they should.
No team will understand this better than Rajasthan, whose main owner Manoj Badale has admitted that they’ve perhaps fallen behind a bit from a cricketing perspective, after prioritising growing the Royals brand and one of his main aims was to get Rajasthan back in the top tier when it comes to all things cricket recruitment.
What can we expect from Rajasthan this auction?
If they’re well known for being the franchise that had a heavy influence on data usage in the IPL, they’re certainly well known for having a ‘business first’ mentality when it comes to running an IPL team. As the owners have no major business interests in India specifically, rather globally, there is no significant pressure for them to spend over the odds on ‘big names.’ As such, this allowed them to navigate the infant years of the IPL, operating on a smaller % of their budget.
However, since their ban in 2016 & 17, their approach has changed slightly, as they’ve been more willing to use a higher percentage of their budget, in the hope that it would help them become more successful on the field, with a goal of winning, rather than making the playoffs, which was their goal for every season when they initially joined the league. Of course, the irony here is that it hasn’t resulted in any success and they’ve actually done worse than in previous auction cycles. I don’t expect that to deter spending this time around though, with it potentially being the last mega auction, franchises will be willing to spend more than ever.
In truth, they were playing catch up so didn’t really have much choice, other than to spend a larger amount if they wanted to reach their goal of competing with the top teams. This saw Rajasthan spend 97.4% of their allocated budget at the 2018 mega auction and then 91.3% in 2019. However this dropped lower again in 2020 & 21 to 82.7 & 83.9% respectively, this could possibly be down to the ongoing impact of the pandemic.
How does this compare to other teams?
As a result of the last two seasons, we can see that Rajasthan are one of two teams that generally tend to spend a lower % of their purse, along with Punjab Kings/Kings XI Punjab. Whatever they’ve spent hasn’t really significantly hindered or helped the side, as they’ve typically been stuck in the 40–45% win rate for individual seasons.
If we look at average squad age, we can also see that Rajasthan tended to have one of the younger squads in the league, which was one of their goals upon their return to the IPL. It didn’t exactly work out in terms of success but I don’t think there were any glaring issues with their approach, apart from a couple of high-profile individual signings that went badly wrong.
What can we learn from previous auctions/mega auctions?
To be honest it’s difficult to make a concise judgement given the situation Rajasthan were in before the last mega auction and if we wanted to go back further, we’d have to look at auctions from before 2016. In my opinion, there wouldn’t be much value in that as cricket (T20s specifically) have evolved a lot in that time period.
Below shows the work that Rajasthan have done at each of the last four auctions:
From this, we can see that a lot of their ‘bigger money’ signings have tended to be dual-role players. The likes of Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler, Jofra Archer, Sanju Samson, Krishnappa Gowtham, D’Arcy Short and Chris Morris all offer more than one skill. The obvious signing that didn’t meet that criteria was Steve Smith, who was one of the most expensive players at the franchise for three consecutive seasons and it’s fair to say things didn’t work out as Rajasthan would’ve hoped. During his three seasons (well technically two) because he was banned for the 2018 season, Smith amassed 630 runs at an average of 31 & strike rate of 123 - below average numbers in general, let alone for one of the most expensive players in the IPL. Its never been clear why Rajasthan actually signed Smith, possibly a mixture of a relatively successful stint for Rising Pune Supergiants and wanting a big name captain, resulted in his purchase but it’s a fairly obvious blip on their record.
From the screenshot above we can also see that Rajasthan have generally focused on overseas players from two countries:
Of the 32 overseas slots available to them across the last four seasons, 23 have been occupied by England/Australia players. This isn’t too surprising given the franchise has often had Australian influence among the coaching staff and their links to England are well known, whether that’s through the owners or various stalwarts on the coaching staff.
This time around Kumar Sangakarra is expected to lead the team as director of cricket/head coach, which may alter their approach at the auction. Although I don’t believe they’ve specifically targeted players from these countries anyway, rather they’ve mostly got good players at good prices, specifically the likes of Buttler, Archer and Livingstone.
Where do they need to improve?
Looking ahead to the upcoming auction it’s easy to see what Rajasthan need to prioritise. Although they haven’t really stood out with either bat or ball, it’s from a bowling point of view where they’ve struggled the most:
Rajasthan have been the worst bowling side in the IPL over the last four seasons, even worse than KXIP, who are often the side people think of immediately when it comes to having a bad bowling unit. What makes things worse is that Rajasthan haven’t just been poor from an economy rate perspective either:
From the graphs/tables above we can also see that they were the worst side when it came to taking wickets, conceding boundaries more regularly than any other team and bowled the lowest percentage of dot balls. While they weren’t significantly worse in any of these metrics, small margins like these make a difference to overall outcomes in T20 cricket.
Unsurprisingly this also meant they had the worst differentials when it comes to economy rate, boundary percentage and balls per dismissal. They’ve certainly got a lot of work to do when it comes to the bowling side of things and I’d suggest it’s where they focus on spending the majority of their remaining budget.
Another issue for Rajasthan’s bowling is that typically even when a team is particularly bad in one area of their game, they’d still have a couple of positives, whether that’s having a good spin attack or an x-factor quick bowler. Rajasthan don’t really have that. In the absence of Jofra Archer, they’ve lost their one shining light; they couldn't retain him due to injury issues and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to get him back in the future either. Despite having Jofra in three of the last four seasons, who has been the second most economical pace bowler in the competition (behind Bumrah), Rajasthan have still been below average as a pace unit overall:
It’s not just the pace unit that has struggled either, their spinners have also conceded more runs and took fewer wickets than the tournament average. Shreyas Gopal had one excellent season in 2019 but had struggled to get near that level again, which leaves Rajasthan likely having to search for a frontline wrist spinner in the upcoming auction.
It’s easy to see why Rajasthan have struggled as a pace bowling unit, despite the success of Archer when we look at this:
As shown above, Archer is a long way clear of any other non-spin bowler that bowled at least 20 overs for Rajasthan in the last auction cycle. In fact only two from the other nine bowlers even close to bettering the tournament average over the last four seasons of 8.59 - Sakariya and Mustafizur. However, this is generous because they both only played in last year’s edition of the tournament, which was partly hosted in the UAE and conditions were favourable for bowlers, resulting in the average economy rate for pace bowlers being much lower (8.18). So essentially, Rajasthan haven’t had an above average pace bowler to pair with Archer across the last four seasons.
Of course, the above numbers also show just how good Jofra Archer has been in the IPL and I feel like sometimes he doesn’t get the credit he deserves, for the level of performances he has put in over the last few seasons. Bringing me onto my next question:
How can they replace Jofra Archer?
The task Rajasthan are facing here shouldn’t be understated. He’s going to be very difficult to replace and they’ll likely have to buy two players to cover the bases Jofra ticked for them. Firstly you have his powerplay bowling ability:
Archer has had the two most economical powerplay seasons since the last mega auction and has had an economy rate of sub 5 twice (in 2019 & 20) and Sunil Narine is the only other bowler to hit sub 5.5. In addition to this, he has also had respectable strike rates in both season’s - just below average in 2019 but was incredible in 2020 with a strike rate of around 15. In his other IPL season he was also in the ideal bottom left-hand corner. Nobody has come close to his powerplay performances in recent seasons, Bhuvi has been economical but has lacked wicket-taking threat and it’s been similar with Bumrah.
He isn’t just a one phase bowler either:
Bowling at the death definitely isn’t his main strength but he’s still comfortably above average at it and is one of only five bowlers in the ideal bottom left-hand corner. Him, Bumrah and Nortje are comfortably above the rest. When you consider his multi-phase bowling ability and then add in his hitting ability with the bat; career boundary percentage of 17.5% (21% since 2019) you’re getting one of the most valuable t20 assets, possibly only rivalled by Rashid Khan & Bumrah.
I’m not sure there is a player you can replace him with currently. If you want someone with batting ability the best bet would probably be Pat Cummins or Jhye Richardson and the latter didn’t register himself for the upcoming auction. Rajasthan will need more than one player to cover for the loss of Archer.
Which players do I think/would I recommend Rajasthan purchase at auction?
To make an accurate judgement for this we need to consider three things; the information above, i.e where they need to improve & types of profile they like to sign, the players they’ve already retained and the playing conditions at their home venue. In terms of the last point, I’m aware that this next IPL season isn’t likely to take place in normal circumstances, due to ongoing Covid issues, the majority of the group stage is likely to be played in Maharashtra. Despite that I think Rajasthan will prioritise a long-term view over immediate success and as a result will look to build a team that suits their home venue (Jaipur). Of course, they’ll still want to compete this season but I don’t think they’ll dramatically alter their plans for what could only be one more season until the IPL returns to ‘normal’.
So how does Jaipur compare to other IPL venues?
Initially, the first thing that jumps out is the chasing win percentage, which is higher than any other venue. Though it’s worth mentioning that Jaipur does have a smaller sample size than the other grounds, owing to the ban Rajasthan received for two seasons and the fact it hasn’t always been their home ground.
In terms of economy rate, Jaipur sits relatively low amongst the eight venues covered, only Chepauk & Hyderabad have had lower economy rates since the start of 2012. As expected, given there’s often a strong correlation between economy rate and boundary percentages, Jaipur also has the third-lowest boundary percentage of the eight grounds in the given time period, again, only Chepauk & Hyderabad are lower. What’s interesting though is that Jaipur has the least sixes hit by quite a distance, a six is only hit every 29.54 deliveries, which is comfortably above the average across the eight venues of 20.5.
Now if we look at the impact of non-spin and spin bowling at Jaipur, in comparison to other grounds:
I wouldn’t say anything really stands out here, Jaipur seems to be similar to a lot of other grounds. Just under 35% of deliveries are bowled by spin and six of the eight venues fall between 32–36%, give or take a couple of decimal places. It’s only really Chepauk that stands out for massively favouring spin and the Chinnaswamy Stadium being a bit of a graveyard for spinners. Once again a low amount of sixes are hit, both against non-spin and spin bowling.
Finally, which players have Rajasthan already retained?
Given what I’ve discussed previously in this article I was a little surprised to see that Rajasthan decided to retain three frontline batters and it’s likely going to be their top three, with Buttler & Jaiswal opening and Samson at 3. With the talent those three possess, it’s difficult to blame them for deciding to retain all three of them and it’ll certainly be one of the best top 3’s in the tournament. The fourth slot could’ve been reserved for Archer, which obviously wasn’t a possibility once they found out his injury status so they decided to leave that slot free. They could’ve retained one of their domestic bowlers (Tyagi/Sakariya) but the fact they didn't, suggests they don’t rate them as highly as some people do? Or they just couldn’t come to an agreement.
Only retaining three players, leaves the Royals with a fairly hefty purse heading into the auction of 62cr, which should be more than enough, to make some noteworthy signings.
With all the information above included, we have a clearer picture of what Rajasthan require at the next auction.
What players could Rajasthan sign?
Firstly let’s take a look at which players they might re-sign. From the squad they had last season it wouldn’t surprise me if they made bids for Sakariya, Tyagi, Parag, Gopal, Lomror, Phillips, Livingstone & Mustafizur. I think at the right prices, any of these would be reasonable additions to an IPL squad.
In terms of new signings they definitely need to focus on the bowling side of things first:
Pat Cummins - In terms of profile, Cummins is arguably the closest they can get to a Jofra Archer replacement. While he probably can’t match Jofra’s T20 skillset with the ball, there’s hope with Cummins that now he’s starting to regularly play T20 cricket, he’ll keep improving. Predominantly a powerplay/middle overs bowler, though Cummins did do an excellent job in the T20 WC last year at the death, going at 7.53, obviously that’s only a tiny sample size but it’s probably worth noting. He has also shown signs of being close to a genuine number 7 with the bat and his potential in this regard is possibly higher than Jofra’s. Overall I think Cummins would be an excellent addition for Rajasthan but he’s likely to be in high demand.
Washington Sundar - Another player that fits the dual role Rajasthan like to look for. Sundar’s qualities with the ball are well known, a highly accurate bowler that doesn’t bowl many bad deliveries. As a result he concedes less boundaries than most IPL spinners:
As you can see, Sundar has the fifth-lowest boundary percentage conceded of the 19 spinners that bowled at least 75 overs and is well above the tournament average. In addition to this only one of those that betters his BP conceded stat is actually available at auction (Mishra), with Rashid Khan, Axar Patel and Chakravarthy all being retained by their franchises. Another feather in Washington’s cap would be his average bowling length of 5.92m is one of the shortest of all IPL spinners, which would suit the big square boundaries in Jaipur. Given his age and batting ability - probably best used as a powerplay pinch hitter, I’d be willing to make a fairly high bid for Sundar if I were Rajasthan.
Chetan Sakariya - Did a good job in his debut IPL season and was the best performer in a bowling attack that didn’t fire at all. Has also performed well in recent Syed Mushtaq Ali seasons for Saurashtra. An economical powerplay bowler and he’d also give Rajasthan a left-arm angle option. Would likely have been in the frame for a retention slot had he not been capped by India already.
Liam Livingstone/Tim David - Livingstone would be my first choice but if they can’t get him, David would be my second choice. Basically, in this slot I’d be looking for a lower-middle order power hitter, that is also a good player of spin. Livingstone also gives the added bonus with his bowling. Both will probably be in high demand, particularly David off the back of his recent PSL performances. Rajasthan have a relatively large sum of money available to them and both of these players would warrant a decent chunk of that.
Rinku Singh - Rinku has been scoring a large volume of runs in domestic cricket for a while in all formats but that hasn’t really resulted in an extended run of games at IPL level. He only batted eight times for KKR in the three seasons he was there and wasn't used in a consistent position. He would be a good option as a middle-order player for RR.
Amit Mishra - Possibly a surprising pick given his age but I think he’d be a handy addition, providing they also pick up a younger wrist/mystery spinner at auction. Mishra’s performances have been of a good level in recent seasons, taking 32 wickets at a SR of 19 and an economy of just over 7 as well as having the lowest boundary percentage conceded of any spinner. This is despite not always being a regular for Delhi in recent seasons. I feel like getting Mishra would give Rajasthan the extra bit of security they need to aggressively target a younger wrist/mystery spin option. To be clear I don’t see Mishra as a certain starter, rather a security blanket in case their front line spinner isn’t performing at a good enough level, they’ll have someone in reserve that can do a good job.
Noor Ahmad - This is a signing I would definitely like Rajasthan to make. We’re talking about a player with a very rare skill set, that’s already holding his own in franchise leagues at the age of 17. He has power-hitting potential with the bat as well. The demand Noor receives at auction will be give a good indication of how long-term some franchises are actually willing to look. He isn’t ready to be a regular at IPL level yet but I’m certain he will be in the future.
Making these signings could leave them with a possible template to build on, looking something like this:
I’d look to fill the XI with a secondary overseas pace option, as well as a domestic wrist spinner. As for the number six slot, obviously, there isn’t exactly a surplus of domestic options for this position. If they can get one of the bigger names then fine, if they can’t, they’ll probably just have to take a hit and that’s fine. It’s difficult to cover every position needed in a squad to an above-average level, even more so now, with the tournament expanding to ten teams. For those positions, here is a list of players I think RR might target:
Secondary overseas pace options - Adam Milne, Tymal Mills, Mustafizur Rahman.
Domestic wrist/mystery spin options - Rahul Chahar, KC Cariappa & Shreyas Gopal.
‘Number 6’ - Shahrukh Khan, Riyan Parag, Vishnu Vinod, Shivam Dube, Ripal Patel & Lalit Yadav.
Other overseas lower/middle-order options - Shimron Hetmyer, Nicholas Pooran, Sam Billings, Glenn Phillips, Laurie Evans, Rassie van der Dussen & Rovman Powell.
Other domestic pace options - Deepak Chahar, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shivam Mavi, Kamlesh Nagarkoti, Ishan Porel, Kartik Tyagi & Khaleel Ahmed.
Rajasthan/Barbados link
In July 2021, the Royals Group acquired a majority stake in CPL franchise Barbados Royals (previously Tridents). This is a positive move for me and something any franchise team should look at doing, establishing links between different franchise leagues gives you a great opportunity to access talent all over the world. Hopefully, this will lead to more Caribbean-based players being signed by Rajasthan - an area they haven’t really utilised in their previous squads, which seems silly given the vast amount of white ball talent West Indies have had in their squads over the years.
Looking at least years Barbados squad, are there any players that could be an option at this upcoming auction?
From this we can already see there have been a few links between the two franchises:
Chris Morris - Signed by Rajasthan at the last IPL auction and then signed for Barbados as well.
Glenn Phillips - Was called up as an IPL replacement player for the second half of last season for Rajasthan, after his CPL stint with Barbados.
Oshane Thomas - Signed by Barbados from the Jamaica Tallawahs last year and was also added to the Rajasthan squad as a replacement overseas player for the second half of last season’s IPL.
Kyle Mayers - Was going to be a replacement player for Rajasthan last season, before the season got suspended due to Covid.
I’d expect many more links to appear in the coming years between the two franchises but as for this season’s IPL I’m not so sure. From the squad above I’d expect Holder was an option initially but his recent performances have probably inflated his price beyond what Rajasthan would be willing to pay. One player I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rajasthan sign would be Glenn Phillips, if they can get him near base price, he provides valuable backup as both a top-order and middle-order batters. Even if I haven’t been as convinced by him over the last 12 months or so (tendency to start his innings slowly), I still think he would be a shrewd pick up as a backup overseas player, to cover multiple bases.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric & espncricinfo