Mumbai Indians - Mega Auction Probables
With a dynasty forcefully being destroyed, how can the remaining rubble be remolded to greatness again?
In the previous cycle of 2018-2021, the Mumbai Indians created a T20 dynasty that was forcefully taken a part, becoming the second team after the Chennai Super Kings to win back-to-back titles, and finished the cycle with having 5 titles to their name overall.
However, with two new teams on the block and the RTM aspect no longer in play, it is highly likely that Mumbai will be unable to reassemble such a dynasty again, but with some of the best in the business in Mahela Jayawardene and their heavily analytical approach every auction, it can be expected that they will play the game as smartly as possible
Under Mahela Jayawardene, Mumbai has generally had a balanced (in-between aggressive and economical/conservative) approach in the auction, frequently exhausting 75-80% of their wallet. In the previous cycle, Mumbai spent an average of 81.375% of their wallet, including 98.61% of their wallet in the previous Mega Auction. This balanced approach is highly likely to continue heading into the Mega Auction, with Mumbai exhausting nearly their entire wallet this instance.
In the previous Mega Auction, Mumbai used half their overseas slots on pacers (Pat Cummins, Mustafizur Rehman, Jason Behrendorff and Ben Cutting), likely because of how pace friendly the wicket is at the Wankhede. All of them were bought above base price as well.
Franchise loyalty is also something Mumbai evidently have at a high pedestal, as they bought back Aditya Tare, Saurabh Tiwary and Anukul Roy, with Tare having been under their banner from 2010-2015 and 2018-2021, Tiwary from 2008-2010, 2017-18 and 2020 onwards, and Anukul from 2017 onwards. It is likely that the aforementioned trends will continue.
Squad Compositions In Last Cycle
As we can see from this, Mumbai have mostly focused on having a young squad composition. And like most IPL teams, Mumbai have at least 1-2 Australians in their squad, a trend that is likely to continue in the Mega Auction. Along with that, the influence of the bowling coach Shane Bond is also evident with three Kiwi pacers (McClenaghan, Milne and Boult) being brought in to Mumbai in the last cycle.
Even though Mumbai have had a relatively a balanced approach with their funds, they never broke the 10 crore barrier to buy a player in the last cycle, with their most expensive buy being Krunal Pandya for 8.8 crores in the previous Mega Auction, which is Mumbai's second most expensive buy, just behind captain Rohit's 9.2 crore bids in the 2011 Mega Auction.
We can see from this that Mumbai have had a preference for Australian and Kiwi players in the last cycle, which is likely to continue. It is likely that at least one or two Kiwi pacers will be bought with Bond being a part of the management.
When it comes to Australian players in the IPL, most teams typically go go after the Big Bash League’s hottest property of the season, but Mumbai appear to take their reputation, experience and the utility they offer into account, which can be seen with buys like Chris Lynn and Nathan Coulter-Nile. It is likely this approach with Australian players will continue in the Mega Auction.
Where Do Mumbai Need To Improve?
Mumbai should look to invest in a higher quality spin duo than Chahar-Krunal. Punjab Kings’ Nicholas Pooran and Chris Gayle, who are both spin hitters, regularly posed a threat.
With Jayawardene at their helm, they may look to invest in Wanindu Hasaranga, who has been having a quality time with the ball in the last 18 months.
Their opening duo of Rohit Sharma-Quinton de Kock both had severe deficiencies against spin. While Rohit was able to fare well in the Chepauk leg last season in spite of that, de Kock’s weakness was particularly exploited, mustering only 47 runs across 4 innings at a dismal strike rate of 87 whilst averaging 11.8.
Mumbai should ideally look at a left hander who is better equipped against spin to accompany Rohit.
Kolkata Knight Riders exploited the weakness of this duo well in their first encounter. Bowling Varun Chakravarthy, Harbhajan Singh and Shakib-al-Hasan in 5 overs of the powerplay, Mumbai were overall only able to score 42/1 in that phase.
Mumbai’s second and third seamers were also inconsistent, with Milne in particular unable to do justice to the 3.2 crores paid to him. Mumbai should look for a left arm seamer to accompany their attack leader Jasprit Bumrah, though there are good chances Mumbai will buy back Trent Boult to pair Bumrah up with once again.
Wankhede
The one thing that jumps out from this is the boundary percentage: only Chinnaswamy has a higher boundary percentage than Wankhede. With the economy rate being just a touch close to 8.00, it can be seen why a fair amount of fours and sixes have been hit.
The balls per dismissal differential between non-spin and spin is the second highest, only behind Mohali. Along with that, the balls per dismissal of non-spin is the second-highest again, only behind Hyderabad by a very slim margin, showing how pace-biased the Wankhede wicket generally is, with the percent of spin bowled being the lowest out of all 8 venues.
Taking this into account, we should expect Mumbai to once again stack up on pacers like they did in the previous Mega Auction.
Players Mumbai Will Likely Target
Trent Boult
Mumbai have had at least two Kiwi pacers fill up their overseas slots in the last cycle, likely because Shane Bond, a fellow Kiwi, is the bowling coach. Boult was traded in by the Delhi Capitals to Mumbai before the IPL13 auction and has had more than favorable returns, with 38 wickets at an average of 22.7 at an economy rate of 7.94 the last two seasons.
A left arm medium pacer who specializes in the powerplay, Mumbai are likely to target him not only because of the returns, but because of franchise loyalty, and Wankhede would definitely be the best home ground for him given he is a pacer, however Mumbai would for sure have to fight hard to have him back in Mumbai colors.
Adam Milne
Same reason as Boult: likely Bond influence. Milne was bought by them in the last auction for 3.4 crores, but was more of a backup player, as he only got only 4 outings, in which he took 4 wickets at an average of 32.8 at an economy rate of 9.36.
A right arm pacer who specializes at the death, Milne is generally expensive, however has shown the ability to nail the hard lengths and yorkers well, and may be why Mumbai would also want to give him another go; franchise loyalty.
Lockie Ferguson
If Boult ends up being out of Mumbai’s reach or they simply would like another Kiwi pacer at their disposal, then they would very likely target Ferguson, a right arm pacer who while is primarily an enforcer, but can also bowl all three phases.
Ferguson is generally said to be underutilized at the IPL by fans, with the Kolkata Knight Riders giving him only 13 matches the last two seasons, in which he took 19 wickets at an average of 19.6 with an economy rate of 7.46.Â
Ferguson’s raw pace would for sure very much be welcomed at the Wankhede strip, and if bought, Mumbai would most likely see him as a first choice player.
Ishan Kishan
Mumbai are for sure going to target Kishan, not just because of franchise loyalty, but because of how much of a performer he has been for them since they bought him in the previous Mega Auction for 6.2 crore, scoring 1133 runs at an average of 31.5 whilst striking at 138.5 in 41 matches.
A left-handed spin hitter, Kishan is also comfortable against pace and wristspin, and from the long-term investment point of view, age is also on the upside, as he is just 23 years old. In the last four seasons, Kishan has a strike rate of 148.20 against pace and has a strike rate of 147.50 at Wankhede. A vastly improved and matured batsman, Kishan should be able to feast at Wankhede very comfortably now.
However, it is very likely Mumbai will have to spend a good chunk of their 48 crore wallet if they do intend on buying him back, as most teams would likely also have him in their plans. Luck would also likely have to be on their side, as nearly all the teams have bigger wallets than them.
Wanindu Hasaranga
With Jayawardene being the head coach of Mumbai, they may be interested in buying Hasaranga, although it is likely he would be out of reach with many teams targeting him, especially Sunrisers Hyderabad with the loss of Rashid Khan. Quick through the air, length and deception, Mumbai could welcome him as a first choice legspinner option in place of Rahul Chahar and also as a batting option as a floater, able to play at high strike rates in all three phases.
Jayant Yadav
Bought by Mumbai in the IPL12 auction, he has played only 9 matches across his 3 seasons with Mumbai, specifically being utilized as a matchup bowler against left-handed batsmen. Four of those 9 matches were against the Delhi Capitals, including the IPL13 final due to Shikhar Dhawan and Rishabh Pant being left-handed and Dhawan’s weakness against spin early on, and he exploited that in the final, dismissing him for 13 runs. All but one of Jayant’s IPL wickets (8) are against left-handers.
Given how heavily invested Mumbai are in analytics, they may contemplate buying him again in the mega auction to again utilize him as a matchup bowler.
Potential Hints
There have been reports surfacing in the last few months that Mumbai are interested in buying Shreyas Iyer. Mumbai have already attempted to acquire the services of Iyer back in 2016, who was the Emerging Player Of The Year in the previous edition, and it is said that Mumbai offered the Capitals three players including Aaron Finch for Iyer but refused.
If the recent reports are to be believed, with Iyer in the auction pool and given the lengths Mumbai went to try and secure Iyer, it would not be surprising if they do end up buying him.
Mumbai’s Scouting Network Influence In The Mega Auction?
Mumbai are well known for how rigorous they are with their scouting and how vast their network is. They have shown how deep their scouting network is, having bought a raw 21-year-old Nicholas Pooran back in 2017 for his base price of 30 lakh and in the previous auction, they bought Marco Jansen for his base price of 20 lakh.
It is unlikely Mumbai will take a punt in a Mega Auction year, but if they do, it could be on Sri Lanka U19 pacer Matheesha Pathirana, a right-arm medium pacer who has a slingy action like the former Mumbai Indians great Lasith Malinga, who is also the all-time IPL wicket taker.
In the recently concluded U19 World Cup, Pathirana took 7 wickets across 4 matches at an average of 27.28.
How Can Mumbai Replace Hardik Pandya?
With Hardik being drafted by the Gujarat Titans in the pre-draft, Mumbai would be having the headache of finding a replacement as good as him, or a player who has a fairly high future upside value that could fill in the shoes of Hardik.
Mumbai too were well aware of his talent, fielding him in 52 of the 74 fixtures Mumbai played in the last cycle. They will also be aware of the challenge at hand to replace Hardik.
With the bat, he regularly accompanied Kieron Pollard towards the death overs to nail the final nail in the coffin in chases, or to take Mumbai to above par totals. A monster against favorable matchups and a handy enforcer option as a bowler (even though he wasn’t able to bowl as much towards the end of his eventual time with MI), it will be quite the headache for Mumbai to replace these attributes adequately.
Hardik being a monster against favorable matchups can be seen below, emphasizing the Mumbai headache.
Only behind MS Dhoni in most runs at the death in the last cycle and that too at a strike rate close to 200, Mumbai will have to do what they can to buy the most ideal replacement for Hardik and would have to play their cards right, seeing as they fall on the lower end of the funds remaining spectrum heading into the auction.
So how Mumbai can go about replacing Hardik?
One player that comes to mind is 27-year-old Romario Shepherd, who has had a memorable last few months since last year’s Caribbean Premier League season. Shepherd is relatively raw but has shown the ability he possess with both bat and ball. A noticeable batting knock of Shepherd that comes to mind is his 72* against the Jamaica Tallawahs last year that helped arrest a collapse of the Guyana Amazon Warriors from 53/5 to 142/7.
Shepherd was also the second highest wicket taker last season, with 18 wickets at an average of 14.11 with an economy rate of 7.69. Half of those wickets came at the death, however he was also fairly good at the middle overs, a phase Hardik specialized in.
Though Shepherd’s sample sizes are small, he has shown to be a more than a positive matchup against most common classes seen towards the death, with a strike rate of 168.6 against pace since 2018.
A second option is 25-year-old Odean Smith, who like Hardik, is more superior with the bat than with ball.
Like fellow Jamaican Andre Russell, Odean has a muscular build, and ticks all the boxes you would expect from a powerhitter: toss it up within his hitting arc and he will smash you long over the fence in the legside with ease. Too short, you can also expect similar treatment in the offside region, with upper cuts, slogs and horizontal cross-bat strokes.
In the last season of the CPL, Odean scalped 18 wickets at an average of 14.88 with an economy rate of 7.54. 11 of those wickets came in the middle overs and would also fit the bill to replace Hardik in that aspect. Odean is also able to clock speeds in excess of 140kph+, a must attribute for an enforcer.
Even though both Shepherd and Odean have been rated by Dwayne Bravo, Mumbai would likely be hesitant to use an overseas slot to accompany another overseas player in Kieron Pollard at the crease, unless Pollard himself puts forward a case for one of them.
So what about from the local crop?
One option that comes to mind is Rajvardhan Hangargekar, a bowling allrounder who was a part of the winning India U19 World Cup squad and was fairly impressive with the new ball, with a smooth runup coming down the crease with streamline momentum, and has the ability to bowl at a good pace.
With the bat, Hangargekar has a knack for hitting sixes late down the order, showing that prowess with being the U19 One Day Tournament’s top six hitter.
Given how raw Hangargekar is, such a buy would come under a Mumbai scouting masterclass, seeing as he only has 2 T20s under his belt currently.
Regardless, given how well-structured the Mumbai management is, we can expect whoever is bought to succeed Hardik would be the most ideal replacement with their eventual squad composition at the conclusion of the Mega Auction.