How Nathan Ellis is unlike most BBL performers the IPL has recently been graced with
How Nathan Ellis is on a mission to break the stereotype created of BBL performers in the last few years
On August 6th, 2021, Nathan Ellis made his international debut for Australia in the 3rd of 5 match T20I series against Bangladesh at the infamous dust bowls of Dhaka.
Originally, he was one of the two reserve players for the series but was eventually moved up to the squad to cover for Riley Meredith.
This call-up came at the back of a stellar performance in the Big Bash League (BBL) 2020/21 season, where he was the Hobart Hurricanes’ top wicket-taker and overall the 7th highest, taking 20 wickets across 14 matches averaging 22.30 with an economy rate of 8.31.
On the day of the 3rd T20I, I randomly decided to tune in and watch the match, and it was the final over of the first innings, with Bangladesh batting and Ellis bowling.
Bangladesh were on 122/6 going into the last over, and while in most T20 matches this would be a terrible position to be on, it was more or less par on their pitches, something that their skipper Shakib-al-Hasan called out and raised concerns.
Before I completely realized it, Ellis had taken a T20I hattrick on debut, becoming the first bowler to achieve this feat.
He started by dismissing Mahmudullah off an attempted off stump yorker that did end up clipping the top of off, followed with a yorker outside off to Mustafizur Rehman that he looked to heave over the midwicket region after clearing the front leg but failed to do so, and completed the hattrick by taking the pace off by about 26 KPH and pitched it short to Shoriful Islam, who pulled it straight to deep square.
Given that the last 2 wickets came against the tail and the fact he conceded 29 runs in his first 3 overs on a surface where scores of 120s were being defended, I chose not to read much into this, and didn’t watch the rest of the match nor the series.
I’ve also aligned with the perception of BBL performers, in that they fail to replicate those performances outside of the league. Admittedly, as a result of living on the other side of the world of Australia, I barely watch any matches each season, and I don’t bother to check scorecards either, unless its something bizarre like the 15 all-out thrashing the Sydney Thunder received this recent season, so I certainly do have myself to blame as well for having a biased availability heuristic when it comes to BBL performers like Ellis.
And that heuristic would primarily be what we all have seen happen quite often in the IPL: such players end up getting hefty paycheques for their services, but most of the time, they, unfortunately, fail horribly and end up getting released the following season, and struggle to find new takers, like a never-ending cycle that’s as stone as the human reproduction cycle.
However, it’s also a bias that IPL franchises themselves have for BBL performers and Australian players entirely, something that I had written about for 12th Khiladi during the last season (which is no longer on there unfortunately).
But players like how Ellis has kept the flame lit for this bias, more specifically why the flame of this bias won’t ever go out entirely, with the first and most important reason being the fact these players are Australians.
For I have come to eventually realize just what the New South Welshman is all about, and why he isn’t just your stereotypical BBL performer.
Ellis is regarded as a high-ceiling death bowler, and the numbers certainly show that.
Post-pandemic, Ellis has been one of the leading wicket-takers at the death (overs 17-20), taking 40 wickets and averaging just 16.52. He’s behind only Andrew Tye, Chris Jordan, Dwayne Bravo, and Naveen-ul-Haq in the wickets tally.
And not only is he a genuine wicket-taker option at the death, but he’s also able to keep it tight economy-wise.
Ellis is one of six bowlers who have been able to maintain an economy rate of under 9 since the pandemic, currently maintaining an economy rate of 8.75.
He is only more expensive than Peter Siddle, Mustafizur, Lockie Ferguson, Jasprit Bumrah, and Shaheen respectively.
So what is his recipe for success?
There are five major ingredients: his speeds, yorker accuracy, variations, a major pace differential when bowling those variations, and his runup speed.
His coach at both the Hurricanes and his state team Tasmania, Trevor Griffith highlighted that Ellis has the potential to bowl up to 145 KPH during IPL2021.
"He actually looked like he was bowling a little bit faster," Griffith told ESPNCricinfo. "It's an energy and effort thing with him, but he's got a great release. He can get 140kph. I think he's got 145 in him at times to go along with all the skills he's got. It's a pretty good package."
I also break down his bowling action and dissect how he generates that pace in this thread.
He has also displayed quite the yorker accuracy since he broke into the scene. For example, his first ODI wicket came off a yorker against Imam-ul-Haq in Australia’s tour of Pakistan last year, and that too right after he reached his century and was batting at a strike rate of 107.29.
Ellis also has a decent repertoire of variations. Along with the leg and off-cutters, he also has the back of the hand slower ball, which is up there with the knuckleball in terms of potency.
The back-of-the-hand variation is something Tymal Mills is well renowned for and has helped him to burst back into the scene once again after the pandemic.
To complement the variations, just like Mills, Ellis can also bowl them with a major pace differential, an asset that makes you even more lethal and threatening as a death bowler.
For example, he can bowl one delivery at around 143 KPH, and follow it up with one at 109 KPH, a pace differential of approximately 34 KPH. This pace differential is especially prominent in finding vast success at the death in recent years, something Mills, Haris Rauf, and Lungi Ngidi have capitalized on.
The last major ingredient is the runup speed, a particular aspect I believe is very unique and very rare right now from what I have seen.
Irrespective of whether he is bowling pace on or pace off, his runup speed stays the same. In fact, Griffith said that his runup speed may actually be quicker for his variations, further aiding the deception of his slower deliveries
“He runs in at a million miles an hour and that doesn't change which is a big part of it as well. He doesn't slow his action down to bowl it. If anything he actually puts more energy and effort in.” he said.
While this is a naked-eye observation that has to be quantified with data to confirm, depending on how true it is, Ellis may be the first known T20 death bowler with such an attribute.
I noticed this in one of the very few BBL matches I watched this season, that to one where he took a hattrick against the Sydney Thunder and took figures of 4/27.
The hattrick was taken across two overs, starting by taking a wicket in the final ball of his first over that came during the final over of the powerplay, trapping Matthew Gilkes plumb for LBW.
He bowled his second over way later in the innings, over 15 to be exact, and dismissed Oliver Davies with a 107.1 KPH variation that went straight to cover and procured the hattrick with a 138.9 KPH delivery that tailed into the leg stump of Nathan McAndrew, beating him for pace and the late tail.
He finished the BBL22/23 season as the 9th highest wicket-taker, taking 18 wickets across 14 matches averaging 25.33 with an economy rate of 8.49.
All these attributes have especially helped him find success in his T20 stints prior to this season, namely with the London Spirit in the Hundred and Hampshire in the T20 Blast, especially playing a major role for Hampshire.
Hampshire won their first T20 Blast title in a decade, large in part to Ellis both throughout the season and on Finals Day.
Ellis took 15 wickets across 13 matches averaging 20.86 and had an economy rate of only 6.87, and especially further cultivated his reputation on Finals Day.
In the first semi-final against Somerset, he took the wicket of the very promising Will Smeed and cleaned up the tail in the final over, helping Hampshire win by 37 runs defending a target of 191 and taking figures of 3-30 in his 3.3 overs.
But it was in the final itself against Lancashire that he really put his hand up high.
Yet again entrusted with the final over having to defend 153, Ellis was bowling at the tail again, but he didn’t have much to work with this time: the equation was 11 off 6 deliveries.
Everything went smooth sailing up until the final ball, where it looked as if he may have shot himself in the foot.
Only 5 was needed off the final delivery, and the T20 Blast doesn’t have super overs for tie-breakers, meaning a four meant Lancashire would win.
But it didn’t matter, as Ellis cleaned up Richard Gleeson with a slower off stump yorker that dismantled the off-stump bail, and the celebrations began, and the fireworks started.
Until it turned out to be a no-ball, with Ellis just overstepping the line, giving Lancashire a totally unexpected second life, a second bite at the cherry.
Ellis had quite literally gone from Hampshire’s Hero to Zero in the same minute before he even got the chance to bowl the free hit, for the equation went down to just 3 needed off the final delivery (or 2 for Lancashire to lift the trophy due to a superior standing in the group stages).
And before bowling the final delivery, they had to wait for the smoke to clear, the smoke from the fireworks to celebrate what Hampshire thought was a battle they won.
It was also the time for both Hampshire and particularly Ellis to clear the smoke from his mind after how badly he erred, quickly go through the Seven Stages of Grief of what he had just done, reach the acceptance stage, move on from it and look to emerge victorious in a manner that legally satisfied the ICC rulebook.
And he did so, with a slower length delivery that Gleeson looked to swing mightly vertically over the line of the ball, but missed everything and could run just the single, and Ellis was able to redeem himself and once more be Hampshire’s Hero.
But let us now dial the radio station to IPL2021, the season where Ellis made his debut in the league and began his IPL journey.
Ellis was signed as one of the few replacement players the Punjab Kings (PBKS) had signed for the UAE leg of the 2021 season after the COVID-19 pandemic put the originally ongoing season in India at a standstill for a few months.
One of the people a part of the PBKS management at the time was Shankar Rajgopal, who was their scout. He revealed that he had his eye on the speedster for quite some time.
“[I] Had eyes on Ellis long before, [I] had tried to get him to the CPL team [Saint Lucia Kings]. We liked what he could offer in terms of skills and ability to bowl in all phases. He is a team man with [a] great attitude, perhaps one of the reasons coaches like him.” said Rajgopal.
Ellis played in 3 of Punjab’s 6 fixtures in the UAE leg but was far from impressive, akin to the stigma attached to BBL performers, taking just 1 wicket averaging 90 with an economy rate of 8.18 from the 11 overs he bowled.
He wasn’t retained ahead of the Mega Auction the following season, but Punjab bought him back for his base price of 75 lakh INR (approx. $95K USD).
Dan Weston, who the Punjab Kings had recruited as an analyst for the auction, explains that in spite of taking into account the perception of BBL performers, he saw him as a low-risk/high-upside choice, reiterating what Rajgopal said about his attitude.
“I agree with you as a general rule about BBL (bowlers in particular) struggling to translate their numbers to the IPL. It would certainly make me think twice in some circumstances, especially when committing a lot of money at auction to a player from the BBL,” he said.
“However with Ellis, I thought there were different reasons why he was a low-risk/high-upside choice. Firstly, he was actually at the franchise already as a replacement player from the previous season and the coaching staff liked him. I also got good reports from coaches who had worked with him at other teams, particularly regarding his mental strength which helps him bowl so well in the tough overs.” he continued.
“In addition, my numbers also suggested he had one of the highest percentages in the world for [the] powerplay & death overs combined - so he's bowling the tough overs a lot and with good results. Throw in the likely low price tag and he was clearly a very attractive option.”
Weston also explains that he likes bowlers who can bowl with a major pace differential like Mills, emphasizing what they can bring into the mix of things.
“I like bowlers who have that noticeable pace drop. Not a lot of bowlers really have it and it's a real weapon. You use Tymal Mills as an example, one minute you worry about him bowling 90mph and breaking your hand, the next he bowls a slower ball with huge pace deviation.” said Weston.
He also believes that he doesn’t necessarily need to develop into an all-phase bowler given the coverage he provides at the start and end of the innings with the ball.
“I don't really think he needs to, for reasons already stated. Powerplay/death overs coverage is a huge asset and he does that really well,” he said.
Talking about how high his ceiling is, he says that Ellis still not a regular for the Australian team doesn’t really do justice to his potential.
“I think the fact he's still not a regular in the Australian white ball teams keeps him a little lower profile than he deserves. If he has an amazing IPL or plays for Australia regularly I think that will change.”
Weston also sees a very bright future for Ellis in the IPL in the long term, given his current career trajectory.
“[He has the] potential to be one of the best death bowlers in the tournament long-term. If he can do that for a number of years then that's a fantastic legacy to leave,” said Weston.
However, there is one potential issue that Rajgopal says is present, even though he has the ability to make up for it.
“He is short so the low trajectory is perhaps the only issue but he has shown he is good enough to compensate with his skills. [He is] also handy with the bat, which helps,” he said.
Standing tall at just 5' 9'', on The Grade Cricketer podcast, Ellis talks about how his short height was a major hurdle for his playing career to further progress, given what the ideal fast bowler is for most coaches and fans.
One major debate on Twitter has been about who should be the first-choice overseas pacer for the Punjab Kings between Ellis and Kagiso Rabada.
I believe that it should be Rabada given his all-phase value and how he has always been very consistent in cleaning up the tail at the death (most of his IPL wickets have come in this phase), and Rajgopal agrees.
“Rabada is a wicket-taker, whereas Ellis is [a] more defensive option. [You] can't have all pacers of similar pace,” he said.
On the other hand, it is a difficult choice for Weston.
“That's a difficult question because both are extremely high quality. I wonder whether there might be scope to use both in tandem sometimes,” said Weston.
However, Ellis is largely expected to start in the first week of the IPL with Rabada unavailable due to an all-important ODI series coming up against the Netherlands to seal direct qualification for the World Cup later this year, so depending on how he fares, he may very well continue to start for Punjab even after Rabada is available.
All in all, from all the BBL performers we have seen post-pandemic, it is safe to say that in Nathan Ellis, a 14-carat diamond has been unearthed by the Punjab Kings out of all of them, one that like a wedding ring, can become very near and dear to the hearts of their fans and create lifelong memories for them with the ball.